【2015年经济现况与展望】文/孙和声2014年底,由于油价大跌,棕 油价格也低迷,加上市场预期美元走高,导致马币贬值。这一系列事件使不少人对马来西亚经济现况…

【2015年经济现况与展望】文/孙和声2014年底,由于油价大跌,棕

油价格也低迷,加上市场预期美元走高,导致马币贬值。这一系列事件使不少人对马来西亚经济现况与前景大失信心。但国家银行主席洁蒂(Zeti Akhtar Aziz)却放话指,马来西亚经

济基本面不错,不必大惊小怪,应公平客观地看待国家经济。实情如何?只见仁见智,窃以为从总体与长期来看,马来西亚经济前景不佳。尽管最近的马币贬值与油价大跌并未引发危机。就现阶段的油价而言,虽然自20

14年9月以来,油价大跌可从2014整年来看,国际油价大体上依然保持在90多美元一桶。据此,在2014年国油(Petronas)对联邦政府的贡献总额,依然可高达约680令吉。尽管较2012年的800亿与2013的734亿为例,但依然颇为可观。只是,若在今年油价保持55美元一桶,那么2015年国油对联邦政府的贡献将会大减。若棕油价格也长期低迷,后果会更

严重。因为自1998年金融货币危机以来,马来西亚便依靠内需来推动经济增长,而油棕价格不错,也是推动增长的主要动力特别是在小城镇。由于家户债务已高达国内生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)1万亿令吉的87%,持续扩大内需的空间已有限,若油价与棕油价格低迷,投资与消费当然也会跟着低迷,结果自然将钝化经济增长。『油价低迷拖累经济复苏』这与经济结构有关。根据国民统计

局资料,在2013年马来西亚GDP的结构为:石油与天然气占17%,批发与零售占14%,金融服务占7%,棕油与橡胶也占7%,其他农业则占6%。从此结构来看,马来西亚依然是大宗商品出口国,因为石油、天然气、与棕油占了GDP大约24%。可见国家经济虽自上世纪八零年代以来,已逐渐多元化,惟多元化程度还不够高。从好的方面来看,大宗商品(commodities)价格大好时,经济形势也会水涨船高,反之亦然。只能说各有好坏。另一点应提出的是,马来西亚虽然

是液化天然气的净出口国,却是石油产品的净入口国。这一点倒是较少人注意到。如在2014年,1月到11月间,马来西亚出口了876亿令吉的原油与石油产品,同时也进口量925亿令吉的石油产品,结果是进口高于出口。主因在于,马来西亚有2200万辆机动车,其中汽车与摩多约各占一半。以一个人口近3千万的国家而言,这个百分比太高。易言之,马来西亚虽然中国收入国,拥车率(car ownership)却是发达国水平,碳排放量(carbon dioxide emission)排名也在世界名列前茅。这显然与本国的国产车政策有关,也与公共交通不佳及城镇化、缺乏规划有关。可以预见,若未再发现新油田,以

一天消耗60万多桶石油的用量判断,中期来看,将是马来西亚难以承受之重,尤其在经济活动层次难以提高的情况下。今天马来西亚面对的根本经济问题是:虽然为中高收入国,但经济活动层次却大体上停留在低薪资水平,也靠薪资滞涨来维持竞争力。这一点,可以从大量廉价外劳的存在事实一窥究竟。只要无法摆脱这个低薪资水平,现

阶段以债务来推动的高消费经济,便难以为继。这已是既存事实,如高公共与家户债务水平。其实自2000年以来,马来西亚已遭全球化浪潮所边缘化,这可从1998年以来的经济中速增长率印证。在1990-2000期间,马来西亚的年均增长率达7.2%,全球排名第五,但2002-2012年以来跌至5.1%,排名第53。『政商朋党抗阻经济改革』主因在于全球竞争渐趋激烈,马来

西亚却旧态依然,并未与时并进。例如政策上依然着重静态股权分配,而非动态的创造财富与体面的就业机会。尽管2010年4月由九位各族经济学家共同提出的新经济模式(New Economic Model)已提出警告,惟依然无法突破既得利益集团,也就监守自盗的寄生集团的阻力。其结果自然是原地踏步,外在世界也不会因马来西亚停滞不前而停止转动。具体来说,自1998年来说,许

多外资已撤离,近几年来,连本国的内资,包括政联公司(Government-Linked Companies,GLCs),也倾向对外投资,以致马来西亚的对外直接投资(Direct Investment Abroad,DIA)超过外来直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)。结果就是,国内民间投资不振,缺乏生存性投资,自然也缺乏体面的就业机会。与此同时,又大肆扩张大专教育,以致政府不得不吸纳大量学非所用的大专生,为免动摇政权。但这又加重了政府与人民的财政负担,如推出消费税。此外,马来西亚是出口低端产品的

大国,量虽然大,增值却不高,有量无价。近八年来,生产力的增长率也远低于经济增长率,如2009到2013年的生产力增长率,分别只有0.6%、2.2%、1.9%、2.0%和2.3%,远低于经济增长率。这就进一步限制了薪资增长率,使得受薪阶层的薪资长期以来,只占GDP大约30%,远低于发达国家的50%。这里还涉及了工作人口中,只有3

0%为高技能工人的结构性问题。政府并未注重培养发展所需的人力资本,私人界更不愿花钱培养员工,以免被挖角,进而形成恶性循环,导致生产力难以上升。实际上,马币贬值也令商界不愿进口先进设备,使马来西亚无法成为一个具有创新力、创意和高阶竞争力的国家。尤有进者,不仅原来人才已少,国家政策和缺乏机会也造成人才外流。当其他国家爱力争上游之际,马来

西亚竟然固步自封,无法进行有效改革。在一进一退的情况下,可以预见未来前景不佳,一手用消费税(Goods and Services Tax,GST)敛财,一手用「一个马来西亚援助金」收买人心,只能是浑浑噩噩的无策之策。


文章來源: http://www.facebook.com/WeFullySupportprdap/photos/a.425764367557944.1073741829.425312047603176/631477356986643/?type=1

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