双补选以后的在野党:绝路还是反扑的契机?

议员观点

让我们谦卑地承认,刚结束的大港与江沙双补选的结果,是马来西亚在野党自2008年政治海啸以来的最低潮时刻。这也许是在野党的绝路,但也有可能是个重新开始、绝地反扑的重生契机。马来西亚来到了一个十字路口。

我之前就说过,国家诚信党要在双补选要胜出需靠奇迹,而比较有可能在选举中完成的是让诚信党超越并取代伊斯兰党,迫使伊党二度分裂,进而促使在野党重组。两场补选成绩,诚信党在大港超越伊党,而伊党则在江沙超越诚信党。

我们必须承认,马来西亚没有在双补选完成厘清政局,没有完成以下的重组:(一)分裂巫统的马来选票、迫使巫统倒纳吉;(二)让选民看到伊党与纳吉合作,它不再是真正的在野党;(三)确立希望联盟为取代国阵执政的替代选择。

国阵要人们接受现实

砂州选举和双补选结束,主流媒体和国阵领袖在传达“接受现实、接受马来西亚是不可能改变的、接受国阵是唯一选择”的信息,他们说:

(一)、纳吉无论丑闻多严重都稳如泰山;

(二)、无论在野党如何努力,都不可能动摇马来乡区选票,马来选票是巫统与伊党的地盘,只要巫统与伊党合作,马来人就不可能选择其他政党;

(三)、马来西亚政治逃不出宗教与政治,相信很快就会出现很多“华人大团结在马华公会底下”的荒唐论调。

希望联盟最艰辛时刻

双补选结束以后,肯定是希望联盟的艰辛时刻。在巫统、伊党和主流媒体舆论的压力下,肯定有很多声音要求民主行动党“加强华人基本盘”,要求诚信党进入“谁比较伊斯兰”的竞争。我们说民主不走回头路,但这么做的话无疑是踏上回头的绝路。

马来西亚的在野党之路本来就不好走,不管选举制度或媒体都并非让在野党公平竞争的场域,还有加诸镇压在野党的种种恶法。马来西亚要通过选举竞争达至改朝换代,本来就不容易。真正的关键,在野党有两座“大山”需要跨越:

第一,如何说服半城乡选区的各族选民,让他们相信换掉国阵是个正确决定。很多人忘记2013年以前,半城乡和乡区的华裔选民,就算在2008年的308选举,都是过半支持国阵的。

我们的困难是,要说服2013年转向支持在野党的华裔、半城乡和乡区选民继续支持在野党,也必须移动巫统的半城乡马来选民板块。

小市民在改变过程中

第二,如何跨越族群和宗教政治?

从2008年以来,巫统就在马来选民间加大力度攻击和妖魔化行动党,在议题的选择上,不断地挑动撕裂社会的议题,目的是让马来人不接受行动党和任何与行动党合作的友党,迫使在野党意识形态的矛盾导致无法合作、无法提供替代政府的选择。

如何在族群与宗教的论述以外,让马来人和其他族群的小市民都在改变的过程中,找到认同和安全感,是我们国家的共同挑战。

更深刻的问题是,在野党如何说服所有马来西亚人,换政府是更好的抉择。

目前,在野党乃至马来西亚,皆来到了一个十字路口。一个选择是“接受现实”,也就是接受这个国家就只有国阵执政、继续沉沦。另一个选择是,正视我们面对的问题,重建在野党理念、势力、能力和影响力,建立新的马来西亚人共同体的共识和认同。

可能回到95或07年

至于那些希望行动党和其他在野党在砂州大选和双补选后倒下的人,我的回答是:现在的情况可能是1995年或者2007年的写照。1995年大选,行动党和其他在野党兵败如山倒,一蹶不振许多年。

2007年4月的雪州依约补选,公正党候选人败选,几乎所有人都觉得在野党无望了,其中8成印裔选票投给国阵;不到一年后的大选,308海啸发生,而且经历了兴权会事件,最少6成的印裔选票投给在野党。

这是最困顿的时刻,但愿也是我们重新为绝地反扑而奋战的时刻。

注:刘镇东是民主行动党全国政治教育主任暨居銮区国会议员

新聞《当今大马》

Check Also

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她指出,马来西亚的5G下载速度 …

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