垦殖民乃52个国席造王者在野联盟还需伊党掀反风

今分析

在一眼望去只有一片片油棕与橡胶园丘的马来腹地,居住着大马选举的造王者——他们是联邦土地发展局垦殖民,是国阵仰赖以执政,稳如泰山数十年的基本盘。

正当第14届大选脚步渐近,这些垦殖区成了朝野的新战场,在野党放眼攻下这些国阵堡垒区。

为了达致这个目标,希盟三党和土著团结党出动前首相马哈迪等重量级领袖,到各垦殖区巡回演讲,期盼垦殖区吹起反风,以助他们赢得足够国会议席,入主布城。

全国共有52国席拥有垦殖区投票区,其中9个国阵所掌握的议席,还尽靠垦殖民选票过关。

这9个国阵议席中,4个是部长选区——乡区部长依斯迈沙比里(百乐)、交通部长廖中莱(文冬)、国际贸易及工业第二部长黄家泉(丹绒马林)及卫生部长苏巴玛廉(昔加末)。

选区划分提升国阵胜算

若选委会的选区重划建议书获得国会通过,则在来届大选,两个边缘州席,即彭亨沙拜(Sabai)和柔佛巴罗(Paloh)选情将有利国阵。

上届大选,行动党只以微差117多数票攻下沙拜。据选区重划建议书,一号、二号及三号猛巴甲(Mempaga)垦殖区合共2025张国阵铁票,将从吉打里(Ketari)州选区划入沙拜。

同样的,马华以153张多数票打下巴罗。 据选区重划建议书,加亨西区垦殖区(Felda Kahang Barat)的1700张国阵铁票,将从加亨州席划出,转入巴罗。

整体而言,2013年大选数据显示,垦殖民倾向投选国阵的国州议席候选人。

即便国阵在丹州垦殖区所获得的选票乃全国最低,但整体而言,国阵仍获得过半垦殖民选民支持,在国席和州席,分别获得59%和58%选票。

其他州属垦殖区方面,国阵获得超过63%的选票。柔佛州垦殖民最为支持国阵,支持率高达90%。

虽然国阵主宰垦殖区选票,但在野党上届大选仍然拿下一些拥有垦殖区的国席——古来、劳勿、龙运、和丰、淡马鲁和瓜拉尼鲁斯,证明国阵虽赢得垦殖区选票,未必就能赢得整个选区。

在瓜拉尼鲁斯和淡马鲁,虽然伊党的垦殖民选票不过半,但伊党依靠非垦殖民选票,以低于1100张多数票险胜。

如果在野党能够在垦殖区掀起反风,垦殖民选民将左右更多国席的选情。

政治学者阿末阿图里(Ahmad Atory Hussien)受访时,也同意这项观点。

“垦殖区代表马来人,因此垦殖民选票将成为大选重要因素。”

“如果垦殖民摒弃国阵,国阵难以守住他们的国席。”

若没伊党难成事

无论如何,若希盟和土著团结党无法说服伊党与它们合作,那么在野党垦殖民征途,将面对另一重障碍。

这是因为,伊党在垦殖区的支持率乃所有在野党之最,而希盟和团结党,或难以说服伊党支持者转向。

2013年大选成绩显示,一些伊党支持者无意投选民联盟党,特别是行动党。

虽然在野党选票微增,但在文冬、金马伦、巴当勿刹和拉美士国会选区,垦殖民更为支持伊党,而非行动党。

文冬国席属下有美律、吉打里、沙拜和柏朗埃(Pelangai)州选区。

美律、吉打里和沙拜州选区的垦殖民对在野党的支持,比对行动党文冬国席候选人的支持率,平均多出3.6%。

但伊党所上阵的柏朗埃(Pelangai),投选在野党的垦殖民选票增加13%。

垦殖民不欢迎行动党

49岁的苏海米是垦殖民。他直言,垦殖民不喜欢行动党。

“行动党不必到来,他们令人讨厌,只会制造麻烦。”

由此一来,阿末阿图里相信,希盟将依赖诚信党攻打,拥有垦殖区的选区。

但他话锋一转,认为诚信党尚难以获得垦殖民支持。

“诚信党是一个新政党。许多人或出席他们与团结党联办的活动,但他们仍只是在争取支持。”

此外,诚信党仍不受垦殖民所接受。

其中一名垦殖民哈山依斯迈直言,诚信党只是行动党国会领袖林吉祥的跟班。

由于伊党与团结党和公正党并未和谐,如果伊党决议单打独斗,不与两党结盟,希盟或难以维持亲在野党垦殖民选票。

伊党与团结党和公正党的合作关系濒临决裂,若没伊党支持,希盟在来届大选,难以维持在野党上届大选所获得的垦殖民支持。

阿末阿图里就说,虽然团结党或能吸引一些巫统选票,但不足以胜选。

《当今大马》在此为您准备图表,让你检查垦殖民是否影响你的选区:

新聞《当今大马》

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