图解雪州选区重划:国阵如何更可能重夺政权?

选委会选区重划建议出炉后,在野党即高呼有丢失雪州政权之虞。其中,行动党更指控选委会协助国阵重夺雪州,要求希望联盟支持闪电州选。

行动党沙登国会议员王建民昨日公布分析报告,以数据支撑这点,而《当今大马》详读这份研究后,整理以下图表,向读者解释选区重划如何冲击雪州政权。

以下为56个雪州议席,显示个别政党在2013年赢获的多数票,及选区重划建议通过后,雪州政局的变动。

最大输家:伊党

基于上届大选数据与投票倾向,选区重划后,伊党会丢失四个州议席,即摩立 (Morib)、巴生海峡(Selat Kelang)、昔江港(Sijangkang)、杜顺大(Dusun Tua)。

伊党原有的15个议席当中,沙白(Sabak)与丹绒士拔(Tanjong Sepat)大致保持不变,但其余9席的多数票将猛挫,无一选区的多数票会增加。

公正党料丢三席

第二大输家,当属公正党。若选区重划建议通过,公正党会丢失依约(Ijok)、巴生港(Pelabuhan Klang)与士文达(Sementa)。

公正党原以巨大多数票囊获的4个州议席,则会因多数票骤减,让国阵有机可乘。这4个州议席分别为:

选区 2013年多数票 重划后多数票(演算)
哥打安格力(Kota Anggerik) 4503 86
美丹花园( Taman Medan) 3731 1125
峇都知甲 (Batu Tiga) 3261 2983
斯里安达拉斯 (Seri Andalas) 15633 3569

选委会是如何办到的?资料显示,选委会将上届投选在野党的投票区,移至在野党以巨大多数票赢获的选区,打造一些超级稳定区(Super safe seats)。正因如此,公正党其余7个席,多数票会进一步飙高。

行动党会再狂胜

与公正党以上情况相似,行动党原有15个议席当中,多数票将继续攀升,唯一例外乃新古毛。此选区的多数票,会从1702票跌至577票。

国阵又如何呢?

选委会建议若是通过,则会提升国阵5个选区的多数票,分别为:

1. 武吉美拉华蒂(Bukit Melawati)
2. 伯马登(Permatang)
3. 轰埠(Kuang)
4. 哥打白沙罗(Kota Damansara)
5. 士毛月(Semenyih)

上届大选,由于三角战,国阵攻克哥打白沙罗与士毛月。选区重划后,国阵得以在无三角战情况下守住士毛月,但一对一的话,哥打白沙罗之役则是一场硬战。

国阵有5个州议席保持不变,但另外2个议席,即而榄 (Jeram)与双溪武隆(Sungai Burong)的多数票会降低。选委会把2个议席的投票区移植到其他国阵灰区,以提高这些选区的胜算。

谁会是大赢家?

选区重划后,希望联盟与伊党会丢失7个州议席。5个希望联盟与伊党选区,则会陷为灰区:国阵仅需吸纳不到500票,即可多得。

若国阵成功夺取这些议席,则会有24个州议席。不过,雪州共有56席,若要达致悬峙议会,尚差4席。

上届大选,民联三党,即行动党、伊党、公正党,共赢获44席,而国阵仅得12席。

若无三角战,国阵单独重夺雪州,机会甚微。然而,选区重划后,国阵在许多议席与希望联盟、伊党差距拉小,而一旦出现多角战,国阵重夺雪州或并非天方夜谭。

新聞《当今大马》

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