伊党来届大选会否失丹州?

议员观点

伊斯兰党领袖比如党主席哈迪阿旺及前总秘书慕斯达法,公开地说由该党开明派组成的新希望团队不会维持超过两年。

民主行动党一直都很关注,尤其是自从吉兰丹在去年12月爆发水灾后,伊斯兰党在下届大选还能不能继续执政吉兰丹。

民主行动党已经在2013年5月举行的第13届大选前告知伊斯兰党领导层,民联预计会在第13届大选输去吉打州政权,所以必须为吉打民联州政府作出一些改变,但我们的关注和警告却被他们当作耳边风。

伊斯兰党有没有可能在下届大选失去吉兰丹的州政权?

虽然目前的全国议题因着消费税、一马公司和越来越严重的经济状况,政治情绪似乎不利于巫统/国阵,但独特的在地因素却可能足以让伊斯兰党在吉兰丹流失选票,而同时候在野党又在全国其他州属获得更多选票。

过去曾有例子

这在以前不是没有发生过。

举例来说,巫统/国阵在第13届大选时在吉打赢多3.8%的选票并成功拿回吉打州政权;但在同一时间,它却在登嘉楼流失了3.7%的选票,差点就失去了登嘉楼州政权。

巫统/国阵在吉打可以胜选是因为前任伊斯兰党籍州务大臣阿兹占软弱的领导能力。

同样的在登嘉楼,巫统/国阵会遭受挫折,是因着巫统籍州务大臣阿末赛益软弱的领导能力。

在吉兰丹,伊斯兰党的支持率会滑落的可能原因有两个:作为伊斯兰党标志性领袖的前精神领袖聂阿兹的逝世,以及吉兰丹现在的州政府没有能力处理水灾后的重建工作。

伊斯兰党在第13届大选于州级获得大约54.5%的选票,在竞选的45个州议席中赢得33席。伊斯兰党在第13届大选于国会选区获得大约53%选票,在竞选的14个国会议席中赢得9席。

以下显示的是伊斯兰党在下届大选中,在国会选区和州级上分别流失3%、4%和5%的选票的三种情况。

在第一种情况下,伊斯兰党流失3%支持,但它还可以中选24个州议席并保住州政权。

在第二种情况下,伊斯兰党流失4%支持,它只能中选20个州议席并失去吉兰丹州政权。

在国会议席方面,伊斯兰党在三种情况下都会失去3个国会议席。

注:本文作者林吉祥是民主行动党国会领袖暨振林山国会议员。

文章來源: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/305359

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